Pandemic to Endemic and so on..

As I scanned through the daily covid-19 figures of our zone, I got a pleasant surprise.

• Date: 31.8.2022
• The total number of Covid-19 cases admitted in Railway hospitals of the zone – NIL.
• Test Positivity Rate in our zone – ZERO

Even the new Covid-19 cases in the country has fallen below 10,000.

Does it mean the present wave has come to an end ? 

There are too many caveats in this statement.

Today Covid-19 has settled down to a 5 day flu which is almost self limiting. Death is rare. So people no longer line up for testing. Some people may test positive by a home kit which is not reported to our portal.

Lessons from the 1918 Flu

The infamous *Spanish Flu* ( it did not originate in Spain though) started in the fall of 1918, just after the Second World War was over. It is attributed to the massive military movement related to that unprecedented war. It had 3 peaks. The initial killing spree followed by a small peak in the spring of 1919. But the killer returned with a vengeance in the winter of 1919. Maximum death had occurred in this wave. There is no record of a 4th wave in our written history.

The present fever has broken all previous records. It has extended to its third consecutive year. In Iran, it has caused more than 5 waves. We are not sure whether a new variant will bring in yet another wave.

…

Epidemic, Pandemic, Endemic

  Whenever an alien pathogen invades mankind it causes an Epidemic. ( Large number of human beings suffer from a single disease at the same time.) It happens because no human is immune against this new pathogen. When an Epidemic spreads to more than one continent at the same time it is termed a Pandemic. For example: the Plague of 19th century.

  By the second or third year, our immune system figures out a way to fight this pathogen out. In case of Malaria and Cholera the pathogen is not completely eradicated. But the severity of them is reduced. So they occur seasonally ( when our self defence comes down) but do not kill like the first invasion. Malaria and Cholera have become Endemic to India. They are here and may strike us at any weak moment. But there are no more epidemic: large number of people falling ill at the same time from malaria.

Will Covid-19 follow their footstep and set us a time table to invade ?

ରମାକାନ୍ତ ମହାପାତ୍ର