Covid-19: 2 Queries

1. Do we need a 4th dose against COVID-19 ?

Most of the data around 4th dose is available for mRNA vaccine of Pfizer and Moderna. The new Bivalent mRNA vaccine is effective against both wild Covid virus and Omicron variant. Data regarding Covishield is rare and Covaxin is the rarest. These vaccines are prepared against the original Wuhan strain though are also active against the new variants to some extent.

Here are few facts for your consideration.

1. Winter is the season for a surge in all types of respiratory infections. This includes Flu, Covid, and other viruses like RSV, Rhinoviruses. Face cover, hand washing and safe distancing will go a long way in preventing winter infections.
2. As a thumb rule, a dose of vaccine ( applicable to Flushot as well) promotes antibodies which peak after 2 months and vanish by 6 months. The correlation to protection against infection is more complicated. Flu shots are given every year for optimal protection.
3. It’s not practical to vaccinate the Globe ( 7 billion) every 6 months. More than 60% of Indians are yet to receive a booster dose. Thus Government has its own constraint before mandating more number of shots.
4. The Bivalent mRNA vaccine gives protection against the wild virus as well as Omicron variants.

A virus anywhere is a virus everywhere.
If your house maid gets the virus from Salia Sahi, that exposes your child to the virus inside your home.

My personal Opinion:

If you are likely to get an high risk exposure to the COVID virus in the coming 2 months, ( like Going abroad to Far East, immuno- compromised, very old age ) it’s better that you get an additional dose of the bivalent mRNA shot, if you can get it.
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2. Are we getting a Covid-19 surge in India in January 2023 ?

This is more difficult to answer. Predicting when India will get its next surge of Covid-19 requires more crystal gazing than scientific analysis. At present, my crystal ball is coated with one inch thick mud and I can’t see a thing in it.

We can see that there’s a surge in Japan, Taiwan and Hongkong right now. There is a message circulating that the Indian case numbers will follow 40 days after Japan and China. let us examine this statement.

What about China ?

Officially China had 5231 new cases yesterday and 4436 new cases day before ( till the writing of this post). That is too less for a nation with population of 1.44 billion. However Western Media claim that China hospitals are overloaded with Covid cases and its crematorium had long queues of dead bodies waiting for cremation.

I believe both are wrong. Why ?

Let me explain. 

China has just changed its ‘Zero COVID‘ policy to ‘Living with Covid‘. Not without reason. The biggest travel fest of the world, the Chinese New Year will be celebrated in January. There will be 3.5 billion journey inside China. There will be the biggest fireworks of the world. As each Chinese folk will be in travel mode, China has withdrawn its Zero Covid Policy of last three years. It has removed the mandatory quarantine, compulsory testing and lockdown in a single stroke. Link is given below.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/prime/economy-and-policy/chinas-policymakers-have-a-new-year-resolution-to-bring-the-economy-back-on-track/primearticleshow/96546431.cms?from=mdr

China sincerely plans to move back to pre-Covid normal. This news is sufficient for the west to go into panic mode and pull all stops in unleashing a media war against the Dragons. This is a routine West versus China media war like the origin of Covid-19 virus. # years have passed. Have the west nailed China on this issue except initiating a media war. let us ignore it and base our judgement on reality.

What has India got to do with it ?

Nothing.

We should not bother about what is happening to Covid in the Western Pacific region ie. Japan, china, Korea and Taiwan,. Neither should we believe what Bloomberg thinks and prints about happenings inside China. I have quoted the WHO report of Covid for the last 3 years in pic for two of its regions.

1. The Western Pacific region consists of China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Australia
2. The South East Asia includes Indian sub continent.

Western Pacific Scenario

Here is the WHO graph for these two regions. The upper graph (red) shows weekly covid detection in Western pacific region. The bottom ( purple) records South east Asia detections. The base line records the years: starting with Dec 31 0f 2019, 2020,2021 in that order. It ends at Dec 2022

As we can see, there is absolutely no relationship of the trend of covid cases in Indian subcontinent and Western Pacific nations throughout the pandemic. the Weekly case numbers in the pacific states are constantly above 10 lakhs throughout 2022 while India records cases below 100.

Indian Scenario

On the other hand, case numbers in the Indian subcontinent for the last 11 months since February ’22 are given below. The numbers are extremely low. May be, our tests per million is low. So also is China’s reporting. But the contrast between two region is eye catching.

Graph 2 shows Covid-19 numbers in India in these 3 years:

• January 2020- Zero cases.
• January 2021-  Very less.
• January 2022-  1 million active cases
• January 2023-  ??

Statistics do not support the statement that India should have one surge 40 days after the spike in Japan. Why would it be ?

• India will have a spike in January ? Why should it have ?
• India will not have a surge this year ? Why wouldn’t it be ?

There is no rationality behind such arguments, except that last winter that is in January 2022 India has a Covid-19 Surge. Will it repeat in January 2023 ?

Frankly, I don’t know. let me remain prepared but without a knee jerk reaction.