Omicron brothers are found to be quite educated unlike their ancestors who have not yet crossed the buffalo lesson of Odia Varna-bodh.
( In the Odia vernacular primer, the Madhu Varna bodha, the very first chapter is devoted to the alphabet- ଅ with a couplet:
“ଅରଣା ମଇଁଷି ରହିଛି ଅନାଇ
ମଇଁଷିର ପାଶ ନ ଯାଅ ଦନାଇ।“
This aphorism is applied to a person who has not even seen the very first chapter in his mother tongue. )
Madhu Varna bodha
Both the brothers have graduated. They are addressed as BA.1 and BA.2.
For the most part of 2021, South Africa has adjusted to the Delta onslaught and has largely recovered by the end of October 2021.
In the early November, suddenly there was a surge of new covid cases. Some of these viruses tried to hood wink PCR tests by camouflaging their S gene: This is called the S Drop Out. That was peculiar because, Delta. the terror of SARS had never played hide and seek. On 24 NOV 2021, South Africa made its first report of a new generation SARS virus: the Omicron.
On 24 NOV 2021, South Africa made its first report of a new generation SARS virus: the Omicron.
Within one month, this new virus on the block stormed into 170 nations. The number of daily new covid cases which was 300,000 in November, 2021 now surged 10 times to 3,000,000 by 15th of January. Death numbers also peaked but only to 2 times while the case numbers surged passed 10 fold level. The Omicron is less lethal.
” The Omicron variant is less lethal than the Delta as explained below.
Now we know that the Delta virus used to progress and settle deep in our lungs. This causes a greater damage to our breathing system and increases our Oxygen Demand. Hospitalisation, ICU occupancy, ventilator use was hiked. This also limits the mobility of the virus. Unlike the Delta, this Omicron only touches our throat and escapes back. Thus it has 10 – 14 times more transmission advantage over the earlier siblings. But lethality is far less.“
This is advantageous to the virus. What does a virus aim at ? It needs a medium to multiply and propagate its genus. It does not want to kill the medium.
The virus took 2 years to learn this lesson and modify its game plan from the strategy of “Infect and Kill” to Just “Touch and Go” and of course “Mutate“.
It was nicknamed the BA.1
The 1st Generation Omicron ( BA.1) took just one and a half month to mutate into its younger sibling BA.2.
It is established now that BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1. For the virus, the whole process is “multiply and jump to a newer host. no killing“. For the host, it is “Touch and GO. No Death“. That the number of death is peaking now is a false alert. Because the Death numbers always lag by 4 to 6 weeks to the infection numbers.
The countries like South Africa, Denmark who got the Omicron early are infected with BA.1. Their numbers surged and remained high for quite some time.
But in countries like India and US, who got the Omicron as late as the January 2022, are affected by BA.2.
The spread of the virus in these nations displayed a peculiar characteristics. These countries reached their peak in the third week of January. But then the Case numbers have slid down to the bottom in just 10 days. The
India is an example.
Here the daily new case numbers surged from less than 10,000 in the early January to 3.3 lakhs on 21st of January ( 33 times). This large number again fell by 5 times to only 67,000 as early as 10th of Feb. That is a gap of 20 days.During the delta peak in the May- June of 2021, the daily case numbers have remained high, for 45 days, till 14th of June. Let us wait and see, how soon or late, this tail is going to be wiped off this time.
( The above graph records the daily new case numbers in India from May 2021 till date. The daily new case numbers in the present Omicron wave has reached its peak in 20th January, 2022 ( 347,254). But the decline since then is stiff and spectacular. It remains to be seen how long and high the tail of the wave is going to persist.)
Unlike the BA.1, which can be compared to a 400 m specialist, this BA.2 is like a 100m sprinter, that hits its top speed in just 2 weeks and slows down within 10 days.
As regards Death: Number of death is always a function of number of case numbers. There will be some increase in death numbers. But it will be much less than the extreme increase in case numbers.
Variants will come and Variants will go.
A century ago, the Great Epidemiologist Theobald Smith has proposed “the Law of Declining Virulence”. It is not in the interest of a pathogen to kill its host. So as time progresses, the variants will become mellower and mellower though they will be more efficient in by passing our defence system.
For your ref:
Dr Ramakanta's Ideas 