“Do vaccines protect ?
“While the cases surge in the highly vaccinated European nations, India and Africa are recording their lowest daily numbers.
Do we really need these vaccines? What about booster shots ?
How many doses will constitute a complete schedule of Boosters ?”
Ramakanta Mahapatra
What is happening in Europe ?
Europe as a whole has 1.88 million new cases in the last one week.
It is the highest number for them in the last one year. Case have spiked in both Western Europe as well as the eastern block. There is a subtle difference between these two observations though.
Vaccination coverage in France, Germany, Portugal, Spain are above 60% as against the nations of the Eastern Blocks, where it is less than 25%.
Though there is 83% increase in new cases in Germany in the last 15 days, but the number of Death and Hospitalisation is reduced by 6 to 9 fold than the last fall.
When compared to the nations like Rumania, Serbia and Czech both number of Death, ICU Occupancy, Hospitalisation in Western Europe is less by 10 fold. That is a huge difference both for the country and the people as a whole.
Advantage vaccination
Vaccination reduces new infection. But it reduces Death, Serious case and Hospitalisation more. 2 doses of Covaxin reduces chance of getting new infection by 77.8%. It reduces serious cases by 93.2%. ( The lancet) That is remarkable.
| CDC | Among Unvaccinated | Among Vaccinated |
|---|---|---|
| Breakthrough infection* | 665.7 / 1 lakh | 113.7 / 1 lakh |
| Death | 9.17 / 1 lakh | 0.7 / 1 lakh |
| Long Covid** | 11.5% | 5% |
- *Breakthrough infection: New Covid infection 14 days after full vaccination.
- **Long Covid ( Post Covid) symptoms that can occur 3 months after the onset of the disease and persists for at least 2 months.
Vaccination reduces serious case and death significantly. It also reduces hospitalisation and ICU occupancy thus decongesting the health care resources of the nation.
Vaccination gives significant advantage to nation’s Public health work load.
One of the important advantage of Vaccination is reduction in virus load. If you are vaccinated and still get an infection, the growth of the virus in your body is limited. This reduces your infectious ness.
It is more marked in the age group below 18.
| 12-18 age group | New cases |
|---|---|
| Unvaccinated | 767 /1 lakh |
| Vaccinated | 81 / 1 lakh |
This is important.
Covid -19 runs a milder course among kids. Children will be asymptomatic yet can transmit virus to their grand parents who will suffer seriously.
Vaccination among the under 18 may not confer visible personal protection. But it has significant public health importance. It should be mandatory.
Booster Dose ( Additional dose)
Immunity wanes with time.
As you move away from your last dose of vaccine, your protection against new infection reduces.
47 countries have adopted the administration of one additional dose (Booster dose) of vaccine against Covid-19.
| Country | % of population with one additional dose |
|---|---|
| Israel | 44% |
| Uruguay | 36% |
| Chile | 36% |
If you are elderly and want to hug your kids better get them vaccinated. It will be even better if you can get a booster for yourself.
Booster at 6 months interval reduces your viral load in case you get a breakthrough infection. ( Link below)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.29.21262798v1
What about India ?
There is always this difference in the flu season between the tropics and temperate nations. Covid-19 may not be identical to Flu. This is a brand new virus. We know so little about it.
In the temperate climates of USA, EU and other nations, the annual flu season starts in November and peaks in the winter. The present surge there is commonly attributed to their annual winter surge. Influenza in India remains mild, continues round the year with a peak during the early monsoon. December and January is accepted as healthy months in tropic ( excluding J&K HP, Uttarakhand etc). May be this reduction in new cases in India is a temporary phenomenon in the greater surge cycle of the Virus. 10 years Surge of Influenza in India is quoted below.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2393449/
End game:
Boosters are inevitable. But how many will be needed. ?
Influenza needs one annual shot every year. Will it be applicable to Covid-19 ? Again Covid-19 is not same as the seasonal Flu.
I don’t Know.
This virus is yet to reveal all of its cards. We don’t know how many cards it still has up its sleeves.
Compiled by: ରମାକାନ୍ତ ମହାପାତ୍ର
Dr Ramakanta's Ideas 