The pandemic may be infecting both vaccinated and not-vaccinated, but the number of Death, Seriously ill and the burden on health care resources are minimal among the fully vaccinated nations.
Only the poor nations of Africa and South East Asia who cannot afford vaccination are suffering more in the new wave.
The rich and poor divide has never been more visible.
R K Mahapatra
The World is having two different pandemics this year. One reached its peak by the mid January and the other is peaking now. (Pic showing WHO Dashboard on 19.7.2021). The first one killed a disproportionately high numbers among the developed nations like EU, UK and USA. But the second one is killing more people in the world, this time the havoc runs in the so called third world. During the first wave, most of the African nations did not have the expertise to test and track the virus. Our data were coming mainly from the EU, UK and USA. As the data from South East Asia, Latin America and some of the African nations have started pouring in, the picture from the top becomes more murky.
On date, the top 7 nations with the highest Corona death rate are from the Africa.
– WHO
Vaccination divides the present pandemic into two clear segments. The Pandemic among the vaccinated and the pandemic of the unvaccinated. A pandemic of the haves and another pandemic of the Have-nots. There cannot be two diseases as dissimilar as these two.
After a brief lull, the covid cases have surged again the world over. ( In India we have named it as the third wave, though in some nations this is different).
The earlier peak was caused by the alpha variant. Then we developed vaccines which effectively neutralised the spikes of the alpha virus. The virus was left with only one option: It must change its spike if it has to survive. And it got it double quick, within two months. Delta virus has brought in 7 changes (mutations) in its spike, two of them are in its binding domains. These two help it escape our antibodies. This can infect more and cheat our vaccines more.
The virus was left with only one option: It must change its spike if it has to survive. And it got it double quick, within two months.
R K Mahapatra
The result is visible. In the USA where 50% of the adult population have been fully vaccinated with one of the costliest Covid Vaccine, the new Covid-19 cases have tripled over the last two weeks. Majority of them are due to the Delta variant. So is the situation with UK and EU nations.
Do the vaccines protect ?
The one word answer is
YES.
Do the statistics lie ?
The answer is NO.
Statistics should be interpreted in the context of the matter.
The Delta factor.
The Delta variant has now spread to 124 countries. The present peak in the world over should better be called the delta peak. The January peak of UK shown in the graph was driven by the earlier alpha variant- The alpha peak.
R K Mahapatra
We are now sure of few facts about this Delta variant.
The Delta variant is definitely more infectious because of four reasons.
- It starts infecting contacts within one day of getting inside a patient. ( For alpha it was 3-5 days.)
- PCR reports have confirmed that the average viral load in Delta infection is 1000 times that of earlier variants. It can infect 100 times more.
- It also remains in the patient for 3 weeks. ( It was 10 days in the earlier variants.)
- It can also escape the immunity conferred by our vaccines.
Do the vaccines protect ?
( I have relied mostly on statistics from UK for this article as they are readily available in the public domain. )
UK stands out as a bellwether country here. Vaccine coverage has reached 69% there. Most importantly, 95% of those above 65 are fully vaccinated.
| UK | Daily New Cases | Peak Hospitalisation | Daily Death | Death per Thousand of New Cases |
| July 2021 | 47,000 | 4500 | 50 | 1.1 |
| January 2021 | 59,500 | 39,250 | 1250 | 21 |
As the delta peak approaches the heights of the earlier alpha peaks, one thing stands out. Number of Death per thousand new cases and Number of serious illnesses in UK is significantly lower among the vaccinated. Breakthrough infection.
A break through infection means any new covid infection among a person who has completed the full course of vaccination.
Breakthrough death counts all covid related death among the fully vaccinated.
We now see more break through infections. Break through death has also increased.
Why ?
Because our vaccination number has also increased. These number should not be cited as stand alone numbers.
This table compares the daily new covid cases and death among a vaccinated UK with that of UK in Jan when their vaccination rate is almost equal to the present day Indonesia. The number of death per thousand new covid cases of the unvaccinated UK is equal to Indonesia today which is yet to reach the vaccination target of 60%.
| Vaccination % of Adult population | Daily New Cases (7 day average) | Daily Death | DEATH / Thousand Case | |
| UK (JULY) | 67 | 47,000 | 50 | 1.1 |
| UK (JAN) | < 10 | 59500 | 1250 | 20 |
| INDONESIA | 6 | 47000+ | 1449 | 30 |
Among these 50 deaths in UK, a July 18 paper has shown that all the break through deaths are mainly in the 65+ age group. These people are having other medical conditions. Their immunity level and vitality is also reduced.
Overall death among the vaccinated is definitely reduced. The young, healthy among them are completely protected. The chances of death are reduced even among the vulnerable though not completely.
R K Mahapatra
What should we do?
We must believe that Vaccination Protects. This will reduce vaccine hesitancy and increase vaccination.
Even after vaccination, the vulnerable need to be protected.
Spread of infection to them can be reduced if all of us get vaccinated and follow Covid appropriate behaviour.
Conclusion.
There is a recent surge in the covid case the world over.
If you will read between the figures, you will see that the death and hospitalisation peaks have shifted from the vaccinated world into the unvaccinated world. Today’s mortality and morbidity numbers are driven mainly by Africa, Latin America and south East Asia.
Here in Bhubaneswar, we have pockets of unvaccinated remain in between fully vaccinated colonies. This forces the virus to move into an hyper transmission mode among the unvaccinated. This also sets the stage for the virus to undergo appropriate mutations.
We must vaccinate all.
No one is safe until everyone is safe.
Dr Ramakanta's Ideas 