Covid-19: from pandemic to endemic- the new normal

When and how will this pandemic end ?

Here is one guess and two figures to substantiate what I’m going to relate in this article.

The covid curve above reveals a bitter truth of our immediate  future. 

Zero Covid figure is a mirage.

Our Covid positive figures do not look like touching zero in the near future. It is more likely that they will continue an undulating course of ups and down. A zero covid positive figure is actually a mirage. We have to live with a community where the virus will continue to wage a Gorilla warfare for a pretty long time. 

Sometime in the near future, the Covid-19 will shed its pandemic status and stay with us as an unwelcome paying guest for ever.

There is a name for such infective conditions : Endemic.

An Endemic Covid will be the new normal. 

The sooner we accept this fact, the better.

How do we live with this unwanted guest reclining so comfortably in our own courtyard ?

We always have four issues with this virus which can be bracketed into Two broad groups

A)

• The asymptomatic Covid cases

• The symptomatic but mild Covid cases

B)

• The hospitalised covid cases

• The severe and fatal cases.

The cases grouped under B are life threatening and will engage a large amount of our resources both health care, human as well as finance Resources in future.

But the A group cases are innocuous and can be managed at home. Of course, they pose a risk to the society, especially to the elderly and people with medical conditions. It will be imperative to quickly detect them and isolate them from the population at risk.

We have two tools in our hand to tackle them:

• Testing
• Vaccination.

Our future depends on how intelligently we can use these two powerful weapons against this unwanted guest.

Universal Adult Vaccination: 

Gradually we will develop vaccines that will be more effective against future variants and will be more affordable. Universal Vaccination against Covid virus will be the NEW NORMAL.

Vaccination certificate will be included in the entry pass of any public places, places of gathering  and travel.

QR codes certifying your vaccination status, test report will accompany your adhar card every where.

Universal Self Testing:

We would have to develop cheap and reliable self test kits to self check from our own saliva. Like the “Do it Yourself” pregnancy test kits at home.

The daily testing figures should matter only to public health planners and statisticians.

The cases grouped under ‘A’ account for 95% of our test positive figures. Their daily updates need not figure in our prime time screen prominently any more. Words like Containment zone should leave our news space and be relegated to their original space- Public health analysts’ workbook.

Epilogue:

Some of the well known common diseases like measles, tuberculosis are actually zoonoses: They have originated from animals, spread initially  like wild fire creating havoc among our ancestors. But the resilience of Sapiens has reduced them to dying embers in their present avatar. So be it with this new member of the pandemic zoonoses.

( The graphs and opinions are author’s personal.) 

[ NB:- Today, we know that measles in humans is a spill over infection from cattle. As the hunter gatherer nomads of  our ancestors settled down and domesticated the cattle, they also picked up diseases from those animals. Initially, measles was limited to the shepherds in the Ancient Middle Eastern River Valleys (3000-2500 BC) who naturally developed enough herd immunity. But the virus became a pandemic in the wake of Alexander the Great when large continents got inter connected. Today, an effective vaccine and universal vaccination against measles has reduced the measles pandemic to what it is today- one seasonal though serious disease among the risk population only. 

So be it with the Covid-19. ]